Member Input To Test Barometric Pressure Forecast

[jewgaffer]

Hi Everyone

I thought I would do another topic as several questions have been asked about the effect of barometric pressure on fishing results lately, and I have received pms seeking my opinion on the subject ........

I know that a lot of you like to theorise looking for common factors that bring on repetitive good times and look for conditions and weather trends that are condusive to good fishing and the trends that identify the poor fishing days or times and then go out and put their studies into practice..... and having done that and succeeded in doing well are bound by curiousity and eagerness to set trends in order to establish the best particular day of the days they have available and the best times to fish on that particular day or determine whether they should fish during that particular night.

There was a rather interesting World Weather site provided as a link by Davemmm in a reply to a question by a member on Barometric Pressure....... I had a good look at their 7 day weather forecast that gives a 3 hourly forecast of the barometric pressure reading and the actual pressure fluctuations as they envisage them to be over a 7 day period......... In this case they have forecast the barometric pressure at sea level for the coming week I.E. from today Sunday the 8th Februay 08 until next Saturday 14th February 08 .......

I have included the air temperature fluctuations they have given as a matter of interest for Botany Bay and this would also include the coastal area around Sydney and would also apply at least as far as say the Gosford to Wollongong area.

It seems that this particular world weather site have put the factors together going off previous trends and tendencies to be able to commit themselves to their theories and actually forecast barometric pressure and fluctuations over a given period.... Barometric forecast predictions are something that I have a calculated guess at myself based on past patterns but haven't seen before and particularly within a weather forecast as a 7 day commitment by a weather site.

I've put Dave's Botany Bay link to this World Weather site on my desktop and I am going to compare the pressure they have forecast with the actual pressure readings and fluctuations over consecutive two tide time frame sequences for checking the accuracy of each of their first next day predictions over the next week or so ....... In saying that, I wonder if the pressure is adjusted by the site in advance or as the ongoing 3 hourly updates come into play....... Other sites have to update in regards to storm and wind etc and I wonder whether the site also updates world wide either by adjusting the barometric pressure predictions as differences occur or as each day ends and as the next day starts etc..... the barometric pressure and the 3 hourly fluctuation predictions may well require updates and adjustments and to carry predictions on and perhaps endlessly at that .........

It would be interesting if other members who fish regularly would comment and perhaps make their own comparisons in order to be able to pick the best time of their chosen day to fish and for this exercize, chose the best day to get into the fish in advance..... as it takes a lot of time and practical experience to be able to forecast the prime times otherwise .......Sydney pressure readings would be much of a muchness a couple of a hundred kilometres or so to the north and to the south of Sydney........

If you study certain days for this week in the shortened version of their forecast below that I have provided for keen readers and keen fishermen wanting get the best out of their fishing, you will find some very favourable spikes either rising or falling to a reading comfortably clear of a low front.......{except it appears for this coming Friday's forecast that a sudden drop in pressure will occur late at night which may well keep dropping into a low front by the weekend} - The spikes I refer to have been forecast to happen on days when I myself would be keen to go out for a session regardless of threatening weather or otherwise, and moreso if their pressure fluctuation predictions are accurate at this stage.

Take this Wednesday the 11th in the am to the late pm section below as an example - there is a sharp barometric rise forecast during a couple of suitable tides to fish up river on the run in tide and near the mouth on the run out tide.....

Some of the same weather and conditions I've noted in the past have formed a trend and seem to align in some respects to this site's barometric pressure forecast....

Have a look below at some of the pressure spikes that they have forecast to occur on some of the other days of this coming week..... A noticeable spike in a rise or fall is what you are looking for and is a desirable time to be out there........ The pressure forecast also shows up the constant steady days around the same reading and these to my mind are days when the fishing livens up as the pressure fluctuates and slows down when it settles in and remains steady and becomes ongoing constantly without a wind and conditions change and that's in regard to estuary species.

This is an excerpt of the weather forecast showing the Barometric pressure as forecast and I have also included the air temperature forecast for your perusal.

Local date Sunday, Feb 08 Monday, Feb 09

Local time 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h

Pressure sealevel (hPa) 1011 1010 1010 1009 1007 1006 1006 1010 1010 1009 1011 1011 1011 1011 1012 1014

Air temperature (°C) 25 24 24 28 31 29 26 25 23 23 22 23 22 21 21 20

Local date Tuesday, Feb 10 Wednesday, Feb 11

Local time 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h

Pressure sealevel (hPa) 1012 1011 1012 1012 1012 1010 1011 1012 1012 1012 1014 1015 1015 1014 1016 1017

Air temperature (°C) 20 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 19 18

Local date Thursday, Feb 12 Friday, Feb 13

Local time 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h

Pressure sealevel (hPa) 1016 1016 1018 1020 1020 1020 1021 1022 1021 1021 1022 1023 1021 1020 1021 1021

Air temperature (°C) 18 17 17 18 20 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 20

Local date Saturday, Feb 14 Sunday, Feb 15

Local time 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h 19h 22h 01h 04h 07h 10h 13h 16h

Pressure sealevel (hPa) 1020 1017 1017 1017 1015 1013 1014 1013 1012 1011 1012 1011 1009 1008

Air temperature (°C) 20 19 19 19 20 21 19 19 19 19 20 22 24 24

"{Last Update: 10:20 local time - Initial Time: 18:00 UTC}"

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Here is a link to the above mentioned World Weather Site as provided by Davemmm for Botany Bay and for our members on the far north coast of NSW and those members in South East QLD, go into the section for Eastern Australia and just click on search on top of the page for Coolangatta.

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/botany_bay_sydney

It would be good for everybody if interested members participated and put some good imput into this.

Cheers

Jewgaffer

Edited February 8, 2009 by jewgaffer

[smokinjoe]

Mr J Gaffer lol, mmmm interesting. Variables in fishing. This is why we are called fisherman and not catcherman. Are you just looking at corresponding pressures and relationships? or are you trying to put the whole perspective into one reasonable forecast for a good days fishing?

The Whole Perspective being and i may miss a few

1 Type Of Species

2 Availability of Species

3 Weather eg cloudy, rainy, sunny, storm, impending storm ( pressure changes as you wish to discuss)

4 Tides, High or Low, before tide or top of tide or after tide, neaps or springs etc

5 Current, direction of or fish in an eddy, what side of current line do i fish.

6 Moon Phase

7 Sun Angle

8 Water Temp at various depths

9 Type of bed or structure you wish to fish

etc etc lol.

Yes i believe the barometer has a place to fit in there as fish do go off or come on depending on whats happening. Pressure regulates the wind ocean currents etc so i dont see why it wouldnt knock fish about. Take for instance your humble jew and its jewels what do you think the jewels are used for? The answer will help you question.

Extreme seasonal changes due to our weather patterns at the moment are causing some havoc, where fish should be they arnt, they are on the way but. Why do the tuna run somedays and not the next.

Why do pros have a good season then a couple of bad. These are the variables and jewgaffer it will always be a mystery i can tell you what species will be where of sydney and when, but when we go for them and there not there we start to look at all those above and more. Hope that helps lol.

[jewgaffer]

Hi Smokinjoe, I have found over time that "estuary" fish are affected by barometric pressure which affects the air pressure upon water and becomes an integral part of the weather and conditions part of inshore and river and estuary fishing...........

I.E. Rising pressure = Fish rise..........Ongoing steady pressure = it can be either lousy or nice to be out on the water but the bites steadies and peters off....... Sudden falls in pressure = the action livens up until the fall steadies and becomes spasmodic at best........Low pressure = fish down deeper or at intermediate depth/s.

It's good to be able to work on the clockwork to target certain days and go off your own experience for the best times that you yourself should go out and fish........This also covers rain, wind and storm but is not relevent to fishing in the shade or wearing a hat or not ...... However reef and structure as you mention, does come into it when you only find your bream and whiting active down deep, just as you do get to know the peak tides for estuary species and water temperature is important when you need to find warm shallower pockets in cold winters, just as you have to find the cooler deeper pockets in some areas in hot summers.

Naturally there are other factors to consider and add to your clockwork, particularly..... if they are relevent to keeping good time in rivers and estuarys.......... I.E. At the moment we have warm water in the Sydney estuarys and cold water in close off shore... So you could assert that fish are trapped in the Harbour, the Bay and the nearby rivers etc......... As an example, the Hacking is on fire at the moment and, a good incentive Joe for you or myself to have a go at the jewfish, is to be there either as a rising barometer starts clearing the skies or just as it falls into a dark sky with threatening rain and turbulence etc.

In this topic, I make mention of a weather site that forecasts barometric pressure in 3 hour intervals over a 7 day period..... This provides an opportunity to note the forecast barometric readings and the forecast fluctuations at a glance, check with your own barometer to test the accuracy, just as you have to check other assertions in fishing..........

I did notice this at the bottom of the weather forecast that refer to in my topic, where I added the brackets....... "{Last Update: 10:20 local time - Initial Time: 18:00 UTC}" so maybe it's updated as the 3 hourly clock rolls over, only hands on checking of a barometer will tell.

Cheers

jewgaffer

[Moro Mou]

Hello Jewgaffer,

I find this a very interesting topic and it is something that i have been meaning to monitor for years but have just been too lazy to do so. I have heard many times in the past that the baro has a big effect in the freshwater scene and in particular impoundment fishing for natives. I normally don't hear this until i have fished hard for a few days for nothing though!!

That said i am going to begin recording for all future outings and will let you know in due course of my results.

[jewgaffer]

Hello Jewgaffer,

I find this a very interesting topic and it is something that i have been meaning to monitor for years but have just been too lazy to do so. I have heard many times in the past that the baro has a big effect in the freshwater scene and in particular impoundment fishing for natives. I normally don't hear this until i have fished hard for a few days for nothing though!!

That said i am going to begin recording for all future outings and will let you know in due course of my results.

I think the important thing in fishing and the hardest part of it, is having enough go in you and enough spare time to get out on the water and only fish what you have have considered and averaged out to be the quality days and times rather than quantity.......To be able to do that with some consistency, weather and conditions would have to come into it, otherwise a fisherman's good days would only amount to uncanny luck and fluke governed entirely by guesswork....The only recognition given to that fisherman would be the big congratulations given by someone who doesn't really know him as a fisherman who has no idea whatsoever of how to repeat the performance ..............unless of course he starts to takes tides, weather and conditions seriously, keeps records and has success with some regularity rather than having all the expensive gear in the world and only catching a couple of fish every pancake day.

Moro Mou I'd say you would be experienced to a good extent with not only the prime times, but also with low pressure fronts and the resultant shutdowns in saltwater rivers and complete shutdowns in freshwater rivers.........

I add this this link for you.

http://fishraider.com.au/Invision/index.ph...c=22530&hl=

Cheers

jewgaffer

[zen801]

Hi Byron,

Mate the last time me and a mate put the old theory to test i think from memory we got two schoolies.

ATM the barometric pressure is excellent at 1025 here near the coast and still slowly rising.

Tomorrow mornings low tide is also good. Early morning low tides over the next few days are great.

Only bummer in the jewie equation is the moon cycle not my favourite.

If its not too wet and windy i might get out there in my dodgy engine in the AM.

Got no bait and the yammie is dodgy but hey, man i need to get out there.

A family member is very sick and its freaking me right out so i need to clear my head.

Any fish taken tomorrow will go back for luck.

Cheers

[Jewhunter]

The baro up here at 2am yesterday morning was 1002 . By 1pm it had jumped up to 1012 so Outdoordan & myself went bassin in Clarrie Hall dam. We picked up a couple of fish & then the baro dropped fast, they went off the chew & it pissed down for 30 mins. Then the baro started to rise, the sun came out & the bass started boofing the surface.

We ended up with 10 nice fish with heaps missed.

I'll put a report up today.

I watch the barometer very closely & have done for a number of years.

Cheers,

Grant.

[Moro Mou]

Thanks Jewgaffer for all the info - Much appreciated.

Cheers

Moro Mou