Razzell Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Hi guys, Just wondering if anyone can shed some light on what the El Nino year we're about to face will mean for fishing in the summer months? I can't seem to find too much information on what it will mean for NSW. The water N/NW of QLD will be cooler than usual, but that's the main impact zone of the natural climate event. I suspect that NSW waters will be cooler, too. However, we're likely to have a very harsh, dry summer. So, anyone got any info from previous years or care to take a guess? Cheers, Razz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fragmeister Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 I always thought that El Nino brings warmer dryer conditions with the effect on the oceans being warmer currents push further south and closer to the coast. More chance of catching billfish in close in Sydney.... I think that sounds good! There must be some Fishraiders with practical experience out wide with some views on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratchie Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 El Niño or la niño, IMO it's just a natural reoccurrence of weathers patterns from yon! Records have only been kept for a minute amount of time considering the earths age. They can't even get tomorrow's weather right, let alone predict what type of summer we're going to have. I will guarantee you one thing though, the fish will be wet! Cheers scratchie!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fragmeister Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 (edited) If I lived where you do Scratchie I wouldn't care whether it was El Nino or El Gringo! But us inshore Sydney fishos live in hope that some of your fish may get pushed down the coast! .... maybe I better move! Edited May 14, 2015 by fragmeister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevefish Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 I would have more billfish anticipation on a La Niña year, plenty of other factors to make or break a season though and besides these things can shift in the 6 months before next beanie season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevefish Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 Damn you auto correct beakie season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Squidy Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Yeah, El Nino generally see's the EAC weaken and more cold water. Hopefully good news for the coming Tuna season... R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volitan Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Changes to ocean currents are only part of the story. Drier conditions on land lead to less runoff - so less nutrient flowing into inshore waters - so less plankton/algae growth - less baitfish and ultimately less predatory fish. I recall that the fabulous inshore pelagic fishing in 2000 (or was it 2001 or perhaps 2002, I forget the dates) was attributed to a la nina (opposite of el nino) and hence the volume of runoff into the Sydney estauries. Arron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volitan Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Plus I found this interesting article - http://www.imas.utas.edu.au/zooplankton/about/long-term-cycles- confirming that el nino results in a weaker eac, cooler surface waters, stronger westerlies and generally more productive surface waters (talking offshore there). Arron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Incredible Hull Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 El Niño or la niño, IMO it's just a natural reoccurrence of weathers patterns from yon! Records have only been kept for a minute amount of time considering the earths age. They can't even get tomorrow's weather right, let alone predict what type of summer we're going to have. I will guarantee you one thing though, the fish will be wet! Cheers scratchie!!! LOL amen! " Tomorrow 'possible' chance of rain, with a 'chance' of hail in some areas, along with a 'possible chance' of an Earthquake and 'chance' of NRL umpires being consistent " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davemmm Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 For the estuary it wont mean much this coming season but the last big dry certainly had an effect over time. By the end of the last El Nino there was certainly a dearth of fish. The big bream didnt seem to come into the Georges and mates complained about the same in the Hawkesbury and we struggled to get regular big autumn flatties. No rain No nutrients. Mind you I may have just had a bad year or so. Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catchin Jack Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Last summer was supposed to be hot n dry, ended up like the northern wet season, they got no idea haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antonywardle Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 la nina means girl (lots of fish) el nino means boy (no fish) well in south america anyway thats where it came from. no idea what it means for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bessell1955 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 I agree with Scratchie. They cant get tomorrows weather right, let alone 12 months in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbox Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 (edited) Arron got most it about right The easterly trade winds that come across the nth pacific slow causing more westerlies in southern haft of eastern australia to last longer. Water will be cooler longer because the east coast current won't travel as fast down the east coast may be further off shore Cooler water westerly winds means less rain. The only factor that could make a difference is what happens is in the indian ocean. If the indian ocean water temperature is warm it could mix the sth artic cold air fronts pushing moisture from the warmer indian across the centre of australia resulting in some of those days when wind is still and rain falls from the heavens. This type of el-nino is quiten often misunderstood but in BOM terms it's referred to as the "green drought" dogbox Edited May 16, 2015 by dogbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volitan Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 The only factor that could make a difference is what happens is in the indian ocean. If the indian ocean water temperature is warm it could mix the sth artic cold air fronts pushing moisture from the warmer indian across the centre of australia resulting in some of those days when wind is still and rain falls from the heavens. Yep, Its easy to forget that most of these climatic effects are so multifactorial that they are always just going to remain predictions. I am no expert on weather but when you think about wind its basically a body of air moving from a high pressure spot to a low pressure spot (to equalize things out) and the differences in pressure come about because of differences in temperature of as little as 0.5 degrees, then you have to understand how hard it is to get it right. I think wind must be the hardest weather thing to predict. Personally, I think our BOM weather forecasts are amazingly accurate considering what they have to work with. cheers Arron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbox Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Yes Arron When it comes to the question about affects on fishing i recon that the answer remains on the day you go as it is today What species your targeting moon cycles tec Fish still have to feed. I think that this winter should see a prolong tuna season based on a late east coast current arriving and would not be surprised if we here on some reports of tuna caught closure to the coast later in the season. Two weeks ago i got a report of good numbers of blue fin caught off Ulladulla wide Not such a great season for the summer period with harder to find temperature breaks out wide. River fishing should be along the same line with winter black fish sporing longer this winter. Good time for fisho to adapt to new fishing techies to keep fish on the table Dogbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razzell Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 River fishing should be along the same line with winter black fish sporing longer this winter. Good time for fisho to adapt to new fishing techies to keep fish on the table Dogbox This is what I was thinking, really... As someone else pointed out, fish have still got to eat, it's finding them and adapting our tactics that's the bugger. I guess time will tell, but loving all the thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razzell Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Yep, Its easy to forget that most of these climatic effects are so multifactorial that they are always just going to remain predictions. I am no expert on weather but when you think about wind its basically a body of air moving from a high pressure spot to a low pressure spot (to equalize things out) and the differences in pressure come about because of differences in temperature of as little as 0.5 degrees, then you have to understand how hard it is to get it right. I think wind must be the hardest weather thing to predict. Personally, I think our BOM weather forecasts are amazingly accurate considering what they have to work with. cheers Arron Agreed, I think they do a great job. It's far from easy and it's easy to be selective with memory - they get chastised when they get it wrong, but no praise when they (more often than not) get it right. Checked the article you posted, it's brilliant. Interesting to see what it does for the pelagics that head in shore in the summer months if the plankton stay nearer the surface. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on what the salmon do in Spring as I suspect that might be a suggestion for what's to come... Whatever happens, sure it'll be fun to be learning new techniques etc. Thanks for your thoughts - very helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbox Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 here is a link to more info http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/169/bureau-confirms-tropical-pacific-now-at-el-nio-levels/ Dogbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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