Facts And Tips On Barometric Pressure And Fishing Results

[jewgaffer]

Facts and tips on the effects of Barometric Pressure and fishing.

For anglers who like to thoroughly read, test and decide for themselves on articles written about fishing.

I originally wrote this article as a freebee to assist in the marketing of a shipment of 2 man mini bass/bream boats from the United States. Not that I am a fishing guru whose opinions are keenly sought, this thesis is based on my own experiences.

This is my own original work and not a copy of someone else's work.

"Balmy nights"

You'll find predators such as jewfish boiling just below the surface, hunting everything that moves and bait fish skipping erratically over the water on balmy nights.

You'll see neighbours out late walking poodles, 80 year olds strolling around holding hands and people window shopping at midnight even in winter, but couldn't tell you exactly why. Balmy nights have a nice outdoor feeling about them.

Land based fishos will see many of the rat population coming out on balmy nights.

The same "atmosphere" applies to marine life. You'll find bottom dwellers in frenzy higher up in the water column and there will be more activity in the shallows.

Balmy nights are absolutely great barometric pressure (atmospheric pressure) nights for bait fish and naturally for the predator fish you are really targetting.

Barometric pressure dropping or rising suddenly from 1016 milibars (normal pressure) brings on fish activity in the shallows and feeding frenzies occur at intermediate and lower depths as well during sudden fluctuations.

Normal barometric pressure is 1016 millibars and that means normal weather and normal fishing. However you can turn those normal fishing days into great fishing days by varying your bait presentations, moving around and positioning yourself downwind whenever possible and fishing back against the breeze, having rods in the current side and in the eddy side.

You should experiment with larger livies, and in the case of jewfish, larger hooks such as 8/0-10/0 live bait hooks and also try a tougher bait like squid to hold general fish interest without baiting you.

The mere presence of smaller fish nibbling away at a large squid strip in jewfish territory, in itself will almost certainly attract the attention of jewfish, which are extremely territorial and fearless snatchers and grabbers and the fish you are really targetting.

The secret for getting your best fishing results is to fish on the days of sudden barometer fluctations up to 10 millibars above or below the previous day's reading, including fast unexpected further rises and sudden falls in readings which were very high in the first place

It's those sudden fluctuations from any readings with the exception of lows going into extreme lows which bring fish into feeding frenzy.

However it's best to stay at home during times of foul weather when the barometric pressure is very low and reads constant around 1000 milibars and below.

I believe, as I edit my full version for Fishraider, there's more of the same to come, this time with a sharper temperature drop and blizzards are on the cards, which, being the result of a low pressure system, means a general shutdown of fish.

During this coming low pressure system, I'll bet you will find a large number depressed fishos and boat bargains.

Rising pressure during extreme lows means the bad weather is over and the skies are clearing but wait about 12 hours or a couple of fresh tides for that rising pressure to dig in before fishing again and you'll strike the up and coming feeding frenzy.

However there is no need to wait if you are targetting fish which are natural deep water bottom dwellers or deep sea fish whose swim bladders are not badly affected by extreme lows which are recovering well enough.

Freshwater fish are the worst affected by extreme low pressure readings and seem to disappear completely. Gun country anglers will most certainly relate to that fact having themselved had first hand experiences of absolutely aweful fishing during low barometric pressure periods when freshwater fishing is a complete waste of time .

Sudden fluctuations bring on feeding frenzy and the shallows are the best places to look for and guage the activity first. You should use stealth and hit and run tactics in close or around moored boats, structures etc to get the best results.

Neglected moored boats are highly habitated F.A.D's to fish around and not only do they house baitfish and bream, they are a haven for visiting kingfish and bonito. (e.g. Pittwater and the Spit area)

Flash storms and showers when the Barometric Pressure is above say 1006mb and rising whether coming out of a low pressure system or not, or falling rapidly except falls not steadying but continuing to fall into an extreme low, are the times of fish feeding frenzy and the time to fish is at the start of the Barometric Pressure fluctuation! Be sure to fish on those days and with wet weather gear and you will get top results for certain !

The point where the pressure stops falling when it starts to fall is always an unknown factor as it may well fall into a low earlier than forecast and the very start of the fall into a low may not produce, the fish having already stocked up to allow for those oncoming conditions.

High pressure systems, remaining steady around 1030 milibars, are generally great for boating and excellent beach and outdoor days. However those constant high pressure days are often really poor and very challenging for good fishing results.

Many weekend fishermen who didn't catch a single table size fish on the nicest of days will certainly relate to that fact.

During very low pressure fish go into deep water due to pressure on their swim bladders and actually hibernate or shut down completly or at the best may strike only within their own comfort zone of water depth which is more of a territorial thing rather than the need to feed.

In summary barometric pressure remaining steady at 1016 milibars or fluctuating steadily on the day to a reading within say 8 milibars above or below 1016 milibars (normal) means great fishing.

However it is an absolute fact that balmy nights and/or sudden fast fluctuations in barometric pressure from almost any previous reading really do bring on the liveliest action and you will get brilliant fishing results, provided of course you study your barometer indication and get your boat out on the water at the time of those fast fluctuations and not a day late as the pressure may then remain steady for a day or more and you have missed that particular fish feeding frenzy!

Regards

jewgaffer

Edited March 31, 2008 by jewgaffer

[Davemmm]

Spot on Jewgaffer.

Theres nothing better than fishing in a summer rain with a southerly heading in. That last hour as the barometer drops leads to a hell of a lot of great bream catches. The problem is getting caught in the southerly. For those of us with smaller boats its a juggling act of watching a big black southerly roll in and catching fish. When exactly do you head for the safety of the pub.

Dave

[mrmoshe]

A top read Jewgaffer and I'm sure you are on the money there.

An old mate of mine at Mallacoota (he's dead now unfortunately) used to have the

same approach and ALWAYS relied on his barometer and ALWAYS scored fish on those fluctuations you

mentioned.

I'll never forget him always saying "the glass is rising" so it'll be a great day's fishing today.

Terrific theory and I'm sure you put in a lot of hard thought into your post...Well done.

Cheers,

Pete.

[jewgaffer]

That is a lot of useful information there Byron Thanks for putting the time in to help us fishos out.

Cheers Swordfisherman

cripes stew i was going to ask you if i could come along as your apprentice so that you could help me out

[micksfishn]

hi jewgaffer from my experiance chasing bass iv found the best fishing is aorund the 1020 mark and up mark which is just about spot on to wat you have said top post u have put together will come in very handy for everyone here

cheers mick

[jewgaffer]

A top read Jewgaffer and I'm sure you are on the money there.

An old mate of mine at Mallacoota (he's dead now unfortunately) used to have the

same approach and ALWAYS relied on his barometer and ALWAYS scored fish on those fluctuations you

mentioned.

I'll never forget him always saying "the glass is rising" so it'll be a great day's fishing today.

Terrific theory and I'm sure you put in a lot of hard thought into your post...Well done.

Cheers,

Pete.

tell you what pete i tweeked back into typing mode when you mentioned malacoota, the barometer did all the deciding there and for wonboyn and lakes entrance too. seemed to be more dependable in that area or something.

shirl and i used to stay at wonboyn in that little angler cabin place opposite the only shop, the p.o. / general store in wonboyn. we stayed there every year for a few years. you had fishos from albury and wagga, even broken hill and cowra that's how good it was. they had fish photos everywhere and huge freezers.

if the barometer was wrong the fish would not be there. one bad day we took the kids up to eden to greet the tall ships , i think that was in 1985 or 1986.

at the right time wonboyn and malacoota and that little creek in between you could only into get to by boat on the top after you got out over the bar at wonboyn, would have been the best spot on the coast.

there were fish everywhere in the lake and the river and a million gutters along disaster bay absolutely loaded with salmon. we used to troll kingfish from wonboyn to quarantine and back every day and it was not uncommon to have a drag burnt burnt out by something you would never stop or see.

i hope they sell a million barometers as they're worth their wait in gold. the ones i reckon are pretty good for permanent outside boat mounting, are corrosion free canadian marine model trintecs which i myself use.

for the benefit of everybody i think that the sponsors could look into bringing trintecs in from canada as i don't think they have an agent over here.

regards and thanks

jewgaffer

fish on

[KingsRule]

What an awsome read , thanks for posting that up jewgaffer

Never thought about the barometric pressure before, i sure will now though

[humesy]

Howdy all,

I have enjoyed reading Jewgaffer's recent pearls and have been in private discussion with him on this subject. He would like to share his thoughts later and I will share the info I put to him after 2 fishless trips on the Hawkesbury. This was my question.

" this air pressure thing is something i will have to pick your brains on if you get the time. It seemed like a steady barometer at around 1010 yesterday. I have read your post and it sounds like i was in the category of the "weekend boatie"who enjoys the good weather but catches bugger all. Is now a good time to fish now that the barometer has dropped 10 points, despite the fact that it is low and despite the fact that it is blowing 40knots. otherwise, i should be waiting for a reading of 1016 and above. ideally i am waiting for the rapidly rising barometer but how often does it happen and what types of weather are associated wih it at what times of year? I have read an article where a fishing guide argues during may/june, the onset of cold SW winds from a front, after NW winds is the trigger for a jewie feeding frenzie. finally, at this time of year, what is the preferred scenario weather/barometer wise?"

Byron has given me some great info (which I am still trying to get my head around) and he will add his thoughts to this post. It is great to have his wisdom shared on this site and I for one am lapping it up. Hopefully, I can contribute soon via the fish reports section.

Cheers

[DaveD]

JewGaffer, awesome stuff mate. A long post, but very informative, as the longer ones usually are

I'll be taking it on board. Have a few smaller questions to confirm though. Would this generally affect ALL waterways ? Also, in a few simple words, when would be the best time to fish then, could you give a thought based on recent weather, for example, would the warmth of yesterday in comparison to the cooler change developed today be a successful time aswell as the colder weather developing into the warmer weather the past few days?

[inhlanzi]

"ten twenty fish a plenty" - is what an old timer said to me...

Good stuff there jewgaffer

A lot of info to digest. I have been looking back at my fishing log books and there is a trend, for me it seems to be when the big high pressure cells come in.

Have a look at this URL for an idea on the pressure. I find it quite usefull as far as pressure goes.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_...IDCODE=IDY00050

cheers

inhlanzi

[jewgaffer]

Howdy all,

I have enjoyed reading Jewgaffer's recent pearls and have been in private discussion with him on this subject. He would like to share his thoughts later and I will share the info I put to him after 2 fishless trips on the Hawkesbury. This was my question.

" this air pressure thing is something i will have to pick your brains on if you get the time. It seemed like a steady barometer at around 1010 yesterday. I have read your post and it sounds like i was in the category of the "weekend boatie"who enjoys the good weather but catches bugger all. Is now a good time to fish now that the barometer has dropped 10 points, despite the fact that it is low and despite the fact that it is blowing 40knots. otherwise, i should be waiting for a reading of 1016 and above. ideally i am waiting for the rapidly rising barometer but how often does it happen and what types of weather are associated wih it at what times of year? I have read an article where a fishing guide argues during may/june, the onset of cold SW winds from a front, after NW winds is the trigger for a jewie feeding frenzie. finally, at this time of year, what is the preferred scenario weather/barometer wise?"

Byron has given me some great info (which I am still trying to get my head around) and he will add his thoughts to this post. It is great to have his wisdom shared on this site and I for one am lapping it up. Hopefully, I can contribute soon via the fish reports section.

Cheers

this is getting more interesting, andrew

seems you are a reader and a thinker as well.

i've got to type this out on one finger so i'll try to answer your excellent questions and explain as best as i can and i hope you yourself and other interested fishos get the drift of my thoughts as they go from my head to this sore finger.

when you were keen enough to go out yesterday andrew to the right places the pinnackle and the reefs off box hd, the cliff faces, then flint and juno for only a few hardy trevs- the trend around at the moment- during the fall from a steady 1014 the fishing should have been hot but only during the beginning of the fluctuation to 1004 which occured from 9pm onwards - in retrospect i can now say "at the beginning" but i couldn't say that in advance.

had keen fishos like yourself known that it was going to fall to an acceptable level and then continue to fall into a big low you wouldn't have gone fishing at all. you would have known you would experience very little feeding activity.

as the pressure starts to go down fish sense when it is going to continue to fall into an extreme low and binge feed accordingly. fishing yesterday was poor (despite your perfectly assessed locations)

as an example of how weather effects fish -

bass store food and hibernate like polar bears in winter and rarely come on again until spring.

temperature prediction is reliable being so slow to fluctuate

there is no way known to forecast what the barometric pressure is going to do - (if only fish could speak !) it is used to assist in part of the make up of weather forecasts, which are often wrong or don't happen as stated. i.e. coastal warnings, rain and winds.

cold southerly busters are aweful for us boaties but prime time for jewies. they often wake shutdown baitfish etc from there sleep as they open their mouths and inhale reems of them into their stomaches.

at ballina fishing park where i stay with the owners a few times every year, and when almost every other variety of the fish stocks in the park's man made football field size ponds are in shutdown mode, particularly in cold miserable southerly busters, the large numbers of jewies go ballistic not long afterwards and almost everyday like clockwork, irrespective of weather or moons.

i also get good reults in northerlys, n/easterlys, easterlys and n/westerlys, westerlys in that order.

you can have summer barometric readings in winter and vice versa.

fortunately for us fishos barometric pressure fluctations can happen more often than it remains steady.

however barometric pressure is not the only reason fishos fail to catch fish. there can be many other factors but fortunatley they can be diarised and averaged out.

my preferred scenario is to be on the water during any fluctuations except lows going down into the extreme low areas which you won't know about until you see it on your barometer when it steadies.

hope this heps explain the jewie riddle just a little more.

ps i have included this reply below in answer to a question from the talented fisho bobfish.

bob i launch at brooklyn but should be able to pick you up at barranjoey as we head out to box hd. if you get there early there would be quite a few big yakkas around the wharf as you wait. so you know what to do.

i reckon those yakka schools will be only safe if they stay right there once we get rid of this el mino or mini mino 3 week shutdown or whatever it is.

the only fish hardy enough apart from outside deep sea fish and pelagics in these conditions to feed and not shut down are the yakkas and the winter trevs at hawkes the hacking hds and botany hds. all the river table fish except blackfish have been few and far between and even as i write, the low pressure system is dropping further into gloom.

and did you see that y/f in a recent post caught in close wow!. the good thing is that it's a huge sign of a coming winter frenzy of pelagics etc in close. i won't reply to that post as they're out of my class. excellent catch fellows!

but look out box hd when she clears here we come

i am expecting blizzards more rain even snow for quite a few days due to the exreme low barometric pressure and then this sudden and eery high temperature today

cheers

jewgather

fish on:1fishing1:

Edited July 4, 2007 by jewgaffer

[jewgaffer]

"ten twenty fish a plenty" - is what an old timer said to me...

Good stuff there jewgaffer

A lot of info to digest. I have been looking back at my fishing log books and there is a trend, for me it seems to be when the big high pressure cells come in.

Have a look at this URL for an idea on the pressure. I find it quite usefull as far as pressure goes.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_...IDCODE=IDY00050

cheers

inhlanzi

an awesome link for members to rely on and at least there's mathematics in that ! but bom wouldn't know what we're up to when we simply go boating on the "right curves".

glad you keep records and logs

heaps of applause

and thanks a lot you and your crew for comparing notes on my painful hawkesbury hands

lord help em if all our logbook blokes ever fish together up there

kind regards

and may logic and common sense always win

jewgaffer

fish on inhlanzi fish on

[Hundgie]

Jewgaffer thanks for that awsome information (priceless), i have spent many years thinking and trying to work out how weather patterns and preasures affect my fishing and what you have just written adds a whole lot more to what i have learnt. I spend most of my time on the hacking or down the coast from bate bay, do you have any special thoughts on those waters?

[jewgaffer]

JewGaffer, awesome stuff mate. A long post, but very informative, as the longer ones usually are

I'll be taking it on board. Have a few smaller questions to confirm though. Would this generally affect ALL waterways ? Also, in a few simple words, when would be the best time to fish then, could you give a thought based on recent weather, for example, would the warmth of yesterday in comparison to the cooler change developed today be a successful time aswell as the colder weather developing into the warmer weather the past few days?

hi dave. yes barometric pressure works exactly the same for fishing in the northern hemisphere as it does in the southern hemisphere..

Barometric pressure readings are the the key to when to fish and when not to fish, when to expect results and when you need to work your butt off to catch them by using downriggers etc., at anchor on live or dead baits or jigs etc.

plus whatever mechanical means you can think of for suspending your baits at the depth of comfort zone of the particular species you are targetting

a classic example of this is the number of home made downriggers that have been in used for ice fishing in canada for centuries for locating the depth where fish would be either active or at least able to digest their food.

in some of parts of canada, the use of downriggers is a must as the catching of fish and the marketting of fish is essential to food supply.

dave there was no way i could write just a few words on this very important topic. i had to give substance to what i said.

unfortunately this day and age, fishing on normal fishing days when the barometer is reading steady at 1016 millibars the results will be only fair and will only good or excellent depending on the fisho himself. i know many others as well as myself will relate to that fact.

but it is an absolute fact that fishing on the very day the pressure fluctuates from that reading or any other reading, and particularly during sudden drenching rain, can get brilliant results provided that the pressure on the day and sometimes the day before for that matter does not begin and continue to drop into a gloomy low below say 1006 millibars.

you will never be able to determine that before your barometer indicator needle stops so you just have to fish on and hope.

thus once again - sudden rises in barometric pressure from any readings are the key to having brilliant fishing results.

and again sudden falls in barometric pressure can be quite often more brilliant than rises if you out there on the day as davemmm so wisely said when airing his own experiences and that, believe me you can count on.

except as i repeat when it in falls into the gloom and into a big low below 1006 millibars which is exactly what we have been experiencing lately and even today.

i hope i am going to the the hairtail social if someone has room as i won't be able to get the mustang there myself, launch and retrieve it and park the trailer as i am still recovering from a fall resulting in a broken back in two vertebra and a back reconstruction and now i i am still thawing out from all the night fishing i did before the big floods.

by the way i won't be putting the wire on, just 8-10's as contrary to nature big animals often come from nowhere in these paultry conditions and to tell you the truth me and the boys have competitions as to who can throw the biggest hairtail the furtherest.

hope this helps.

jewgaffer

fish on

[Jimmy C]

G'day Jewgaffer,

I realise this is a huge post but the words just keep rolling out when your thinking about fishing!!

Mate I enjoyed your post as I too try to come up with all sorts of weird and wonderful theories on when to fish. Also, you hear experts say the barometer is important but none of them go any further into how it works for the layman so I applaud you for your posts and for the insight you provide.

I've had a lot of success in estuaries on an intra-day change in weather conditions.

The classic for me is the balmy stinking hot summer’s day where the high humidity leads to an eventual downpour in the mid-afternoon. Quite often the cloud cover and rain lasts for an hour or so and then the sky clears up for the rest of the evening. During the change, the temperature might have fluctuated from 33 degrees plus back to maybe the mid twenties or less and then back again into the 30's. Many of the most successful times have been when the wind remains relatively still during this change, rather than the sudden flare-up of strong southerlies that you describe are good for jewies (which I do not doubt whatsoever).

In those periods of high weather and temperature volatility I have found the fishing to be particularly frenzied. Despite knowing little about barometric pressure, I have always thought that this volatile weather pattern constituted a change in the barometer and that I had successfully manipulated the weather variables in order to achieve success.

So I have tried to see through the eyes of the barometer - although I don't actually check measurements, so one can't be sure the pressure has in fact changed! Rather than just noting a change in the weather (obviously we can't visually distinguish a change in pressure), I am trying to make a calculated guess that the pressure has changed. Maybe you can tell me whether or not that type of weather pattern and quick temperature drop/recovery does characterise an actual change in pressure and your estimates of by how much.

I saw you mention mathematics before... Perhaps I can draw some type of mathematical parallel to aid in developing this a little further. Now I'm not sure what type of mathematics you are into but I deal stock options for a living so I find economics logical. Spikes in volatility create frenzied activity in the markets. Smaller buyers and sellers see rapid movements in prices as a limited opportunity and enter quickly with little time to evaluate scarce information. As such, smaller players find pricing can be difficult and as a result bigger (predatory) traders move in to exploit these arbitrage (or miss-pricing) opportunities.

If there was a piscatorial version of this it would be a confused bait ball surrounded by sharks!!

But I guess what I'm getting at is that there are prey and predators in both environments and that a spike in volatility is what creates action. The size and the frequency of the fluctuations dictate the level of volatility and thus interest. Both situations are characterised by confusion and interest which creates predatory opportunity and then action that leaves all opportunities exploited fairly quickly - think traders bringing markets back to parity through exploiting miss-pricings until they no longer exist versus a pack of predatory fish engulfing and exhausting a crowded school of bait until there is nothing left to eat. The situation then goes flat again and there is less action until the next set of opportunities arises.

So in looking deeper for some kind of hashed-up theory (perhaps you will think I'm smoking hash!! ):

In times of high volatility, the bottom end of the food chain is possibly at their most active and confused. Bait too are looking to feed and situations such as quick spikes of rain or wind may mean that there is less visibility from above the water, so possible protection from birds might be a limited opportunity for bait to feed without the added danger from above for instance. Or possibly it means that the temperature or pressure change forces bait schools to leave previously ideal columns or areas of water in search of more ideal environments, which leaves schools vulnerable to being attacked while they are on the move.

The most important variable that I can see is that frenzied activity stems from the opportunity being deemed as limited. Any prevailing continuity in the weather pattern or barometric pressure either means that there will no longer be any opportunities or at the other end of the scale that the opportunities are so many that there is time to rationally assess information and no longer the urgency to act quickly, and thus no feeding frenzies. I don't know what you think of this last point regarding an abundance of opportunities, but I have found at times that you can locate a lot of bait all over the place, but that there are not necessarily predators in tow. Frenzied activity occurs when resources are scarce.

So from all angles that I look at it, the most profitable opportunities arise during a spike in volatility, but of course you have to be quick before they dry up...

Obviously, this runs with what you are saying in terms of getting out there as soon as the pressure changes. Of course we know it’s possible to catch fish at all times but our minds seem to always have us searching for order and cause-and-effect relationships to score the best results.

Thanks for your insights jewgaffer - and I hope this adds something for you or at least provides you with a slightly mathematical or economic twist!! At least it might serve to promote that while they may have small brains; fish are driven by a type of underwater economics of the most basic kind. Although humans are complex, one can see in many aspects of our everyday lives that we too are often driven by the most simple of economic objectives also. Drawing similarities between the ways both species think under these circumstances could lead to a better understanding of how a fish's environment impacts on their decision making.

Interested in your thoughts....

Cheers and thanks for listening,

Jimmy

[jewgaffer]

G'day Jewgaffer,

I realise this is a huge post but the words just keep rolling out when your thinking about fishing!!

Mate I enjoyed your post as I too try to come up with all sorts of weird and wonderful theories on when to fish. Also, you hear experts say the barometer is important but none of them go any further into how it works for the layman so I applaud you for your posts and for the insight you provide.

I've had a lot of success in estuaries on an intra-day change in weather conditions.

The classic for me is the balmy stinking hot summer’s day where the high humidity leads to an eventual downpour in the mid-afternoon. Quite often the cloud cover and rain lasts for an hour or so and then the sky clears up for the rest of the evening. During the change, the temperature might have fluctuated from 33 degrees plus back to maybe the mid twenties or less and then back again into the 30's. Many of the most successful times have been when the wind remains relatively still during this change, rather than the sudden flare-up of strong southerlies that you describe are good for jewies (which I do not doubt whatsoever).

In those periods of high weather and temperature volatility I have found the fishing to be particularly frenzied. Despite knowing little about barometric pressure, I have always thought that this volatile weather pattern constituted a change in the barometer and that I had successfully manipulated the weather variables in order to achieve success.

So I have tried to see through the eyes of the barometer - although I don't actually check measurements, so one can't be sure the pressure has in fact changed! Rather than just noting a change in the weather (obviously we can't visually distinguish a change in pressure), I am trying to make a calculated guess that the pressure has changed. Maybe you can tell me whether or not that type of weather pattern and quick temperature drop/recovery does characterise an actual change in pressure and your estimates of by how much.

I saw you mention mathematics before... Perhaps I can draw some type of mathematical parallel to aid in developing this a little further. Now I'm not sure what type of mathematics you are into but I deal stock options for a living so I find economics logical. Spikes in volatility create frenzied activity in the markets. Smaller buyers and sellers see rapid movements in prices as a limited opportunity and enter quickly with little time to evaluate scarce information. As such, smaller players find pricing can be difficult and as a result bigger (predatory) traders move in to exploit these arbitrage (or miss-pricing) opportunities.

If there was a piscatorial version of this it would be a confused bait ball surrounded by sharks!!

But I guess what I'm getting at is that there are prey and predators in both environments and that a spike in volatility is what creates action. The size and the frequency of the fluctuations dictate the level of volatility and thus interest. Both situations are characterised by confusion and interest which creates predatory opportunity and then action that leaves all opportunities exploited fairly quickly - think traders bringing markets back to parity through exploiting miss-pricings until they no longer exist versus a pack of predatory fish engulfing and exhausting a crowded school of bait until there is nothing left to eat. The situation then goes flat again and there is less action until the next set of opportunities arises.

So in looking deeper for some kind of hashed-up theory (perhaps you will think I'm smoking hash!! ):

In times of high volatility, the bottom end of the food chain is possibly at their most active and confused. Bait too are looking to feed and situations such as quick spikes of rain or wind may mean that there is less visibility from above the water, so possible protection from birds might be a limited opportunity for bait to feed without the added danger from above for instance. Or possibly it means that the temperature or pressure change forces bait schools to leave previously ideal columns or areas of water in search of more ideal environments, which leaves schools vulnerable to being attacked while they are on the move.

The most important variable that I can see is that frenzied activity stems from the opportunity being deemed as limited. Any prevailing continuity in the weather pattern or barometric pressure either means that there will no longer be any opportunities or at the other end of the scale that the opportunities are so many that there is time to rationally assess information and no longer the urgency to act quickly, and thus no feeding frenzies. I don't know what you think of this last point regarding an abundance of opportunities, but I have found at times that you can locate a lot of bait all over the place, but that there are not necessarily predators in tow. Frenzied activity occurs when resources are scarce.

So from all angles that I look at it, the most profitable opportunities arise during a spike in volatility, but of course you have to be quick before they dry up...

Obviously, this runs with what you are saying in terms of getting out there as soon as the pressure changes. Of course we know it’s possible to catch fish at all times but our minds seem to always have us searching for order and cause-and-effect relationships to score the best results.

Thanks for your insights jewgaffer - and I hope this adds something for you or at least provides you with a slightly mathematical or economic twist!! At least it might serve to promote that while they may have small brains; fish are driven by a type of underwater economics of the most basic kind. Although humans are complex, one can see in many aspects of our everyday lives that we too are often driven by the most simple of economic objectives also. Drawing similarities between the ways both species think under these circumstances could lead to a better understanding of how a fish's environment impacts on their decision making.

Interested in your thoughts....

Cheers and thanks for listening,

Jimmy

sheer genius. jimmy c you have the gift of very fine style and expression indeed and an analytical mind

there is nothing in your posting that anyone can disagree with no matter what their qualifications are

this is worthy of a high honours degree plus an automatic PHD with out even going thru the motions.

tell you what i'll send your post over to a mate capt butch (foster) of yeahright charters in n.c. i'll bet this'll finish up in finn talk if that's o.k. by you.

heaps of applause

we can talk on the water putting everything into practice..keep touch and i'll answer your questions when i am no longer agape coz it's sure painful after the first 20 minutes.

keep in touch will ya

kind regards

jimmy me truly thinks it's a thesis of sheer brilliance.

we'll go on the water and burley them in with the power of the mind! and then some....

we won't even need hairtail repellent - i'll save that for sat's social night

jewgaffer

fish on

Edited July 5, 2007 by jewgaffer

[bjneville]

G'day Jewgaffer,

I saw you mention mathematics before... Perhaps I can draw some type of mathematical parallel to aid in developing this a little further. Now I'm not sure what type of mathematics you are into but I deal stock options for a living so I find economics logical. Spikes in volatility create frenzied activity in the markets. Smaller buyers and sellers see rapid movements in prices as a limited opportunity and enter quickly with little time to evaluate scarce information. As such, smaller players find pricing can be difficult and as a result bigger (predatory) traders move in to exploit these arbitrage (or miss-pricing) opportunities.

If there was a piscatorial version of this it would be a confused bait ball surrounded by sharks!!

But I guess what I'm getting at is that there are prey and predators in both environments and that a spike in volatility is what creates action. The size and the frequency of the fluctuations dictate the level of volatility and thus interest. Both situations are characterised by confusion and interest which creates predatory opportunity and then action that leaves all opportunities exploited fairly quickly - think traders bringing markets back to parity through exploiting miss-pricings until they no longer exist versus a pack of predatory fish engulfing and exhausting a crowded school of bait until there is nothing left to eat. The situation then goes flat again and there is less action until the next set of opportunities arises.

So in looking deeper for some kind of hashed-up theory (perhaps you will think I'm smoking hash!! ):

In times of high volatility, the bottom end of the food chain is possibly at their most active and confused. Bait too are looking to feed and situations such as quick spikes of rain or wind may mean that there is less visibility from above the water, so possible protection from birds might be a limited opportunity for bait to feed without the added danger from above for instance. Or possibly it means that the temperature or pressure change forces bait schools to leave previously ideal columns or areas of water in search of more ideal environments, which leaves schools vulnerable to being attacked while they are on the move.

The most important variable that I can see is that frenzied activity stems from the opportunity being deemed as limited. Any prevailing continuity in the weather pattern or barometric pressure either means that there will no longer be any opportunities or at the other end of the scale that the opportunities are so many that there is time to rationally assess information and no longer the urgency to act quickly, and thus no feeding frenzies. I don't know what you think of this last point regarding an abundance of opportunities, but I have found at times that you can locate a lot of bait all over the place, but that there are not necessarily predators in tow. Frenzied activity occurs when resources are scarce.

So from all angles that I look at it, the most profitable opportunities arise during a spike in volatility, but of course you have to be quick before they dry up...

Obviously, this runs with what you are saying in terms of getting out there as soon as the pressure changes. Of course we know it’s possible to catch fish at all times but our minds seem to always have us searching for order and cause-and-effect relationships to score the best results.

Thanks for your insights jewgaffer - and I hope this adds something for you or at least provides you with a slightly mathematical or economic twist!! At least it might serve to promote that while they may have small brains; fish are driven by a type of underwater economics of the most basic kind. Although humans are complex, one can see in many aspects of our everyday lives that we too are often driven by the most simple of economic objectives also. Drawing similarities between the ways both species think under these circumstances could lead to a better understanding of how a fish's environment impacts on their decision making.

Interested in your thoughts....

Cheers and thanks for listening,

Jimmy

Jimmy - that's a top analogy! Helped put Jewgaffer's post in context for me.

Nice.

[DaveD]

This is getting more interesting and more logical the further the discussion progresses. Hopefully this will lead to more successful reports, perhaps all at the exact same times too nice thought JimmyC, makes a lot of sense

[jewgaffer]

Jewgaffer thanks for that awsome information (priceless), i have spent many years thinking and trying to work out how weather patterns and preasures affect my fishing and what you have just written adds a whole lot more to what i have learnt. I spend most of my time on the hacking or down the coast from bate bay, do you have any special thoughts on those waters?

hi and many thanks

every blue moon i get a real good one in southetly shelter in the hacking.

but far more often get zilch jewies down there after many hours of thinking

as to your question do i having any special thoughts on those waters - yep sure do but they are too rude to post

cheers

jewgaffer

fish on

[Jimmy C]

Jewgaffer - forward it on to the skipper by all means...

And I will keep in touch for sure and I'll take you up on going for a fish so we can put it into practice.

I can't make it to the social on sat night as the GF has picked up some tickets to the Live Earth concert but keep it in mind for another time as definitely keen to talk more.

Can't help feeling there's a lot more to uncover on the subject!!

[jewgaffer]

.............could you give a thought based on recent weather, for example, would the warmth of yesterday in comparison to the cooler change developed today be a successful time aswell as the colder weather developing into the warmer weather the past few days?

sorry i missed this question AmateurDave. i can only give you an opinon on why it got warmer yesterday.

as to that sudden temperature rise being a successful time for fishing, from my experience a bad low that remains steady causes fish to shutdown and never has been a good time to fish in rivers regardless of temperature fluctuations

in ballina divers have been known to find estuary cod deep inside their burrows in the rocky shorelines and notice that they are dormant when a low pressure system remains steady.

i don't know why it got warmer yesterday during this present low but i do know that a sudden warm day in a low can often lead to storms.

i also know that a sudden a drop in temperature, during lows and rain, generally leads to long periods of steady rain which eases as the barometer starts rising again.

hope this helps dave

regards

jewgaffer

fish on

[DaveD]

sorry i missed this question AmateurDave. i can only give you an opinon on why it got warmer yesterday.

as to that sudden temperature rise being a successful time for fishing, from my experience a bad low that remains steady causes fish to shutdown and never has been a good time to fish in rivers regardless of temperature fluctuations

in ballina divers have been known to find estuary cod deep inside their burrows in the rocky shorelines and notice that they are dormant when a low pressure system remains steady.

i don't know why it got warmer yesterday during this present low but i do know that a sudden warm day in a low can often lead to storms.

i also know that a sudden a drop in temperature, during lows and rain, generally leads to long periods of steady rain which eases as the barometer starts rising again.

hope this helps dave

regards

jewgaffer

fish on

It helps. Especially the notion of the fish staying in hibernation as mentioned earlier with the bass and now with the estuary cod. Also interesting thoughts with the

sudden a drop in temperature, during lows and rain, generally leads to long periods of steady rain which eases as the barometer starts rising again.

All of this is making me wanna give it a go and try in a sudden change.

I just want to apply all of these sudden weather changes and such to a previous experience in the past. I was down at Captain Cook's Bridge wharf in the morning fishing with my old man. Weather went from cool to windy with showers on and off. He chickened out and went into the car while it was a little wet, I kept fishing. Every cast practically produced a teeny snapper. The bites were going crazy. Although there were no real prized catches or keepers, the horrible weather meant a frenzy with the little fellas.

[jewgaffer]

It helps. Especially the notion of the fish staying in hibernation as mentioned earlier with the bass and now with the estuary cod. Also interesting thoughts with the

All of this is making me wanna give it a go and try in a sudden change.

I just want to apply all of these sudden weather changes and such to a previous experience in the past. I was down at Captain Cook's Bridge wharf in the morning fishing with my old man. Weather went from cool to windy with showers on and off. He chickened out and went into the car while it was a little wet, I kept fishing. Every cast practically produced a teeny snapper. The bites were going crazy. Although there were no real prized catches or keepers, the horrible weather meant a frenzy with the little fellas.

there you go amateurdave that's another example of what i was talking about. just imagine what would have happened if your dad drove over to the southern side to shelter under the span during your little fish frenzy off the wharf and thru the 8/0s in there on livies.....

dave i also fish on in that type of rain and it's always a boomer.

thanks

jewgaffer

fish on

[jewgaffer]

G'day Jewgaffer,

...............) The most important variable that I can see is that frenzied activity stems from the opportunity being deemed as limited Any prevailing continuity in the weather pattern or barometric pressure either means that there will no longer be any opportunities or at the other end of the scale that the opportunities are so many that there is time to rationally assess information and no longer the urgency to act quickly, and thus no feeding frenzies. I don't know what you think of this last point regarding an abundance of opportunities, but I have found at times that you can locate a lot of bait all over the place, but that there are not necessarily predators in tow. Frenzied activity occurs when resources are scarce.

So from all angles that I look at it, the most profitable opportunities arise during a spike in volatility, but of course you have to be quick before they dry up...

Obviously, this runs with what you are saying in terms of getting out there as soon as the pressure changes. Of course we know it’s possible to catch fish at all times but our minds seem to always have us searching for order and cause-and-effect relationships to score the best results.

Thanks for your insights jewgaffer - and I hope this adds something for you or at least provides you with a slightly mathematical or economic twist!! At least it might serve to promote that while they may have small brains; fish are driven by a type of underwater economics of the most basic kind. Although humans are complex, one can see in many aspects of our everyday lives that we too are often driven by the most simple of economic objectives also. Drawing similarities between the ways both species think under these circumstances could lead to a better understanding of how a fish's environment impacts on their decision making"

Interested in your thoughts....

Cheers and thanks for listening,

Jimmy

i'm getting there jimmy. the thesis is starting to get me into action mode. we will combine all in practice and put the results into fishing reports and the menu into the library with copy rights otherwise the answer will be a pineapple.

with kind regards

jewgaffer

fish on

[Guest Big-Banana]

Barometer 1020, fish are plenty.