When B.O.M. gets the forecast wrong ... or

[zmk1962]

Hey Raiders,

Several members in the past have asked how far can they take their boat offshore, or what to look for in forecast conditions.

Well even with the best looking forecast, reality is sometimes very different. Take Tuesday 28.05.2024. You could not ask for a better forecast (seabreeze) than this for an offshore session at the shelf:

10kts winds then dropping later in the day (From the West so not too much clash with the southerly seas)

0.6m (2ft) wave height, consistent from South with a generous 10-12sec period inbetween

Forecast validated by Deckee App and a quick check on BOM site ... no warnings regarding conditions. 

After the great session I had with Gilford mid March (reminder photo) ...

... I encouraged Maria to join me ... and she agreed to brave the winter cold.

Hmmmmmm.

WELL... the reality was very different from the forecast... there was an underlying 2-3m swell and then a 0.6m waves on top, and the winds were much more like 20kts.

So initially I was contemplating to post this in the fishing reports, but given we only caught bait,  I thought I would put this post here in BOATING.

I guess the message is you just have to be prepared for all eventualities, have a plan B, or if you persist with Plan A make sure you (and your crew) are confident, calm and that you have prior experience with your rig. In our case were we safe and dry despite numerous waves over the bow and across the screens. The CruiseCraft EX720HT  has a 2.5m beam and a 6.5m waterline, 3000kg on the water with ZIPWAKE to control pitch and roll. A bumpy ride nevertheless. Enjoy the Vid.

PS - I vacuumed and mopped the house as retribution on Wednesday 🙄

Cheers Zoran

[BaitDropper]

Hi Zoran, Firstly commiserations on a not so smooth outing, unfortunately it does become par for the course sometimes, incorrect weather forecast, or unexpected changes not forecast.

You have a great fishing weapon there Sir, very nice Cruise Craft indeed !!  I have the same brand but a much smaller version and far more vintage to boot. After being a deckie in one not quite as big as yours recently, you definitely can feel the difference while out and indeed after the days end as well. Video's never ever really show the actual conditions experienced on the day on the water, but the decision to pull up stumps when you did, was the correct one.

I will say Zoran, I am impressed with your video work and the end results. I decided, as most of my fishing is solo, to set up a camera/video in my tub over winter, so I may well PM you and get some info on your set up you have..

Anyways, 10 out of 10 for persisting as you did, I guess there was always that chance it eased while you were out there, but alas, no such luck..

Again, great video..

[Little_Flatty]

Maybe we need to start a 'bait collecting' forum 🤣

Most of my reports will belong in there... 

[slowjigger]

4 hours ago, zmk1962 said:

 

So what conditions did the BOM forecas? You said you only had a quick look for warnings. I ask because I was thinking of heading out a couple of weeks ago. The BOM (and Met Eye) predicted a substantial swell of 1.5 to 2m whereas Seabreeze and Willy Weather had under 1m. I ended up not going so can't vouch for the actual conditions.  

[Robbo from Sydney]

I am regularly finding the wind forecasts on the BOM app are out - quite a few times I have decided not to go out the next morning based on the forecast wind only to find the predicted wind has not materialised

[mrsswordfisherman]

Thanks for posting that video Zoran. It clearly describes the reality when the forecast is wrong. 

You have an excellent and well setup boat. We regularly see boats going offshore in much lesser vessels. It is a wonder we do not see more people get into real trouble. 

Maria is lucky you are a very capable captain of the ship, always in control. 

It probably won't be the last vacuuming and mopping you will need to do all the same  

[Sharknado]

Not 100% sure but don't all other weather apps & services just get their info from BOM??

I guess that's why BOM have a littles disclaimer box on all their forecasts.

Please be aware

Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height.

 

At the end of the day captains need to have enough common sense to not only have a plan B but to change to it sooner rather than later plus I think if your on a boat you should always wear a life jacket even if the rules say your not required to. So many people have drowned in sudden bad situations because they didnt have time to put theirs on.

Better to err on the side of caution & live to fish another day 😉
 

Edited June 1 by Sharknado

[zmk1962]

21 hours ago, BaitDropper said:

Hi Zoran, Firstly commiserations on a not so smooth outing, unfortunately it does become par for the course sometimes, incorrect weather forecast, or unexpected changes not forecast.

You have a great fishing weapon there Sir, very nice Cruise Craft indeed !!  I have the same brand but a much smaller version and far more vintage to boot. After being a deckie in one not quite as big as yours recently, you definitely can feel the difference while out and indeed after the days end as well. Video's never ever really show the actual conditions experienced on the day on the water, but the decision to pull up stumps when you did, was the correct one.

I will say Zoran, I am impressed with your video work and the end results. I decided, as most of my fishing is solo, to set up a camera/video in my tub over winter, so I may well PM you and get some info on your set up you have..

Anyways, 10 out of 10 for persisting as you did, I guess there was always that chance it eased while you were out there, but alas, no such luck..

Again, great video..

Thanks Col, that's fishing or offshore boating - be prepared. I have the Cruise dialled in now (zipwake / trim settings) so the ride is as good as its going to get. For comparison our previous Haines was a weapon as well but in conditions such as these we would have been standing the whole trip, whereas now we are sitting.  But you are correct the videos can't really capture the scale of the seas advancing toward you, which can appear very menacing making it more important to remain calm - and hopefully the captain has developed that from experience vs bravado. 

Sure please reach out whenever you want to chat about the video set up. For years I have run with, iPhone photos and videos,  a GoPro Hero5 mounted under the hard top and this year I treated myself to an Insta360 X4 360deg camera mounted where the GoPro used to go  - it was its maiden voyage and a huge learning curve for me. Given what I now saw, I will be experimenting with relocating the Insta360 - lower, and probably onto the windscreen centre pillar.   I edit with iMovie on my Mac.

21 hours ago, Little_Flatty said:

Maybe we need to start a 'bait collecting' forum 🤣

Most of my reports will belong in there... 

Cool... love the idea. Can we please have a subsection in the Bait Collection forum for soft plastics collection - I still have a record to submit !!! 🤣

18 hours ago, slowjigger said:

So what conditions did the BOM forecas? You said you only had a quick look for warnings. I ask because I was thinking of heading out a couple of weeks ago. The BOM (and Met Eye) predicted a substantial swell of 1.5 to 2m whereas Seabreeze and Willy Weather had under 1m. I ended up not going so can't vouch for the actual conditions.  

Interesting. As far as I know they all pull their reports from BOM - but sometimes there can be a delay. Like you I check as many sources as possible - especially the night before trip and on waking up day of the trip.  This is my go to BOM site Costal Watch :  http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydneycoast.shtml

I agree if you are unsure - don't go.

17 hours ago, Robbo from Sydney said:

I am regularly finding the wind forecasts on the BOM app are out - quite a few times I have decided not to go out the next morning based on the forecast wind only to find the predicted wind has not materialised

Yup .. hence it pays to check as many sources as possible. Know your and your rigs limitations when you stick your nose out of the heads, have a plan B, consider your crew's experience and make the captains call. 

2 hours ago, mrsswordfisherman said:

Thanks for posting that video Zoran. It clearly describes the reality when the forecast is wrong. 

You have an excellent and well setup boat. We regularly see boats going offshore in much lesser vessels. It is a wonder we do not see more people get into real trouble. 

Maria is lucky you are a very capable captain of the ship, always in control. 

It probably won't be the last vacuuming and mopping you will need to do all the same  

Thanks for the kind words Donna. She was a bit grumpy about the conditions - not me thankfully. In hindsight I think she was more upset she didn't get the chance to outfish me at Brown's again 🤣. You are correct re vacuuming and mopping ... it's not the first and won't be the last - just like her being crew - last night over dinner with friends she was already smiling and joking about how bad the conditions were. 

 

1 hour ago, Sharknado said:

Not 100% sure but don't all other weather apps & services just get their info from BOM??

I guess that's why BOM have a littles disclaimer box on all their forecasts.

Please be aware

Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height.

 

At the end of the day captains need to have enough common sense to not only have a plan B but to change to it sooner rather than later plus I think if your on a boat you should always wear a life jacket even if the rules say your not required to. So many people have drowned in sudden bad situations because they didnt have time to put theirs on.

Better to err on the side of caution & live to fish another day 😉
 

Too true. Captains responsibility to make the call. 

We were never in any real danger (I also had the radar on scanning for weather developments with a 40nm range) - just the comfort level had dropped significantly. We decided to punch on as this was the first opportunity we encountered to test the rig in rough water - infact once we realised it was too uncomfortable to fish and given we were already out there, we decided to  treat the day as a learning curve and do some additional tests of the Sonar and Radio set up, so we actually pushed on  - testing the low freq sonar at 40-50-60kHz and LowChirp settings. Lost bottom read around 740m depth at 7km past Browns, VHF radio still communicating with Marine Rescue with no issues. 

We both came back very comfortable with how the rig handled the conditions and with real world experiences of its capabilities that we would not otherwise have had.  

---

Cheers Zoran

Edited June 2 by zmk1962

[slowjigger]

1 hour ago, zmk1962 said:

 

Interesting. As far as I know they all pull their reports from BOM - but sometimes there can be a delay. Like you I check as many sources as possible - especially the night before trip and on waking up day of the trip.  This is my go to BOM site Costal Watch :  http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/sydneycoast.shtml

I agree if you are unsure - don't go.

 

Some of them like Willy Weather and Seabreeze are more orientated towards surf conditions than boating. Met Eye is good because it shows the variation in wave and wind conditions according to the distance offshore. 

Edited June 2 by slowjigger

[zmk1962]

24 minutes ago, slowjigger said:

Some of them like Willy Weather and Seabreeze are more orientated towards surf conditions than boating. Met Eye is good because it shows the variation in wave and wind conditions according to the distance offshore. 

Mate... are you looking over my shoulder???  This is my Bookmark folder for Fishing/Boating 🧐 🤣

 

[Steve0]

My weather predicting needs are rock and beach related, but...

Fishranger is not land oriented, ocean oriented or shoreline oriented but gives a variety of forecasts: For example, enter Postcode 2551 you get a choice of six forecasts, including the Eden town, Twofold Bay, and Offshore.

Fishranger gives a good explanation of weather forecasting methods (take some of Myth Q&A with a grain of salt).
https://www.fishranger.com.au/the_truth_about_weather_sites
There's a lot of reading. Stick with it.  FWIW, I found Fishranger forecasts a little iffy for Eden. Grid locations for there were Merimbula Airports and Green Cape. It could be calm at one and very windy at the other. A mathematical prediction based on them to get a forecast for Eden might be right, but I often found them wrong. It was better to look at the forecast for Merimbula Airport and Greencape separate, then head in the most friendly forecast direction for a day fishing.

Other prediction services suffer the same problems, but some use low resolution forecast data, which results in less reliable for predictions (as my Eden example demonstrates). I prefer area broad forecast over location-specific forecasts and use animations like

https://www.windy.com

https://www.ventusky.com/

If you keep up with BOM warnings, you'll notice they are updated or removed frequently (i.e. what's predicted at 4AM may not be valid at 9AM). You'll also see a BOM rep get onto media occasionally saying, "sorry, we got that wrong". Weather forecasting is not 100% accurate science.

BOM MSLP when animated, can give you an idea about intense lows and fronts that may bring a sudden change (but watch the horizon anyway).
 

Edited June 2 by Steve0

[BaitDropper]

Thanks Zoran,  When we get to the depths of winter, I plan to set up a camera system and yours looks bee's knees.

 

 

Cheers

 

[zmk1962]

3 hours ago, Steve0 said:

My weather predicting needs are rock and beach related, but...

Fishranger is not land oriented, ocean oriented or shoreline oriented but gives a variety of forecasts: For example, enter Postcode 2551 you get a choice of six forecasts, including the Eden town, Twofold Bay, and Offshore.

Fishranger gives a good explanation of weather forecasting methods (take some of Myth Q&A with a grain of salt).
https://www.fishranger.com.au/the_truth_about_weather_sites
There's a lot of reading. Stick with it.  FWIW, I found Fishranger forecasts a little iffy for Eden. Grid locations for there were Merimbula Airports and Green Cape. It could be calm at one and very windy at the other. A mathematical prediction based on them to get a forecast for Eden might be right, but I often found them wrong. It was better to look at the forecast for Merimbula Airport and Greencape separate, then head in the most friendly forecast direction for a day fishing.

Other prediction services suffer the same problems, but some use low resolution forecast data, which results in less reliable for predictions (as my Eden example demonstrates). I prefer area broad forecast over location-specific forecasts and use animations like

https://www.windy.com

https://www.ventusky.com/

If you keep up with BOM warnings, you'll notice they are updated or removed frequently (i.e. what's predicted at 4AM may not be valid at 9AM). You'll also see a BOM rep get onto media occasionally saying, "sorry, we got that wrong". Weather forecasting is not 100% accurate science.

BOM MSLP when animated, can give you an idea about intense lows and fronts that may bring a sudden change (but watch the horizon anyway).
 

Great info @Steve0 ... thank you for putting it together. The weather changes and localised conditions can develop unexpectedly. All we can do is remain vigilant, stay on VHF 16 etc. I also think the accuracy drops once the FADs have been retrieved as the data from the many offshore FADs is no longer feeding in. 

Cheers Zoran

[Steve0]

I just ran across another resource some ocean and rock fishers may find a use for:

https://nearshore.waves.nsw.gov.au/home/forecast