Basswhisperer Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 (edited) Hi Fellow FR I went to the Botany Bay yesterday as was favorable Willy weather wind forecast only to be greeted with severely incorrect forecast and had to endure terrible conditions on the way back in. When I checked forecasted vs actual today it was severely incorrect again. Does anyone have any theory’s why information is incorrect and is there more accurate information available ?? Edited January 24, 2022 by Basswhisperer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noelm Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Put simply, it's a "forecast" or in more direct terms, an educated guess from the data available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingie chaser Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, Basswhisperer said: Does anyone have any theory’s why information is incorrect and is there more accurate information available ?? Maybe because mother nature had another plan! Dont forget we are still in a La nina weather effect & the warmer ocean temps can produce erratic or even earlier onset wind updrafts or general changes to wind speed. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ But yeh as Noel said, its a forecast. I've got out in BB in my tinny at dawn & said what the hell..........................this is not what I or BOM ordered 😂 Couple of times I just turned the car around & didnt bother putting in then another couple of times I put in & said why didnt I just drive home when I had the chance....................couple of times I put in at 15knt winds & and 2 hours later it was glass. We all roll the dice & sometimes we get snake eyes & other times we win the pot 😁 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basswhisperer Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Hi Kingie Chaser thanks for your reply and insight I also suspect La Niña is having an impact. I am concerned however when you monitor weather for a week and ten while forecast is wrong and not adjusted as an FYI I will be contacting BOM tomorrow with some feedback.. everyone makes the usual remarks about weather but when governments give millions off dollars a year to these people I expect more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingie chaser Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Im not sure if your like me as in I generally trust that from the 4.20pm forecast to the 4.45am things arent going to change to much so I usually just get up & go. But as I dont live far from the coast( & the airport) if I get up & look at the trees around my place & they are blowing around to much I generally know it will be x 4 on the water so That again has backfired on me to as I have made the wrong call after going back to bed & getting up a couple of hours later & its a perfect day. Wouldnt it be nice to have a better live cam view or our waterways! I know the there is live cam's for different bars but wouldnt it be ideal just to log on & have a look while your having a coffee & bit of toast 😉 They should expand this a bit more imo. https://www.nsw.gov.au/topics/using-waterways/conditions-weather-and-tides/webcams I like the Seabreeze app myself but they all really get their info from BOM anyway, just easier to read imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Restyle Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 All weather forecasts are based off computer models & most use the bom's forecast they are just easier to read. also wind predicted on land will be a lot weaker then that predicted over water. a 10km southerly may be 20km in the north parts of the bay for example. There should have a "error margin" as they do with cyclone movement. Example of that would be a 10km westerly with 1 -5 and +7km/hr error margin in grey as seen in cyclone future movement maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingie chaser Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Restyle said: All weather forecasts are based off computer models & most use the bom's forecast they are just easier to read. also wind predicted on land will be a lot weaker then that predicted over water. a 10km southerly may be 20km in the north parts of the bay for example. There should have a "error margin" as they do with cyclone movement. Example of that would be a 10km westerly with 1 -5 and +7km/hr error margin in grey as seen in cyclone future movement maps. Add the BOM disclaimer Edited January 24, 2022 by kingie chaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant fish Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 When my daughter was about 15 she asked me in the morning why I hadn't taken boat out I told her it was too windy she asked how I knew told her to look at the trees getting blown around her reply was there no trees on the water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basswhisperer Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 hours ago, motiondave said: I was seeking some intelligent insight to why may be incorrect. Expected better than the below. Kingie Chaser thanks for your input. Motion Dave if you can’t add anything positive don’t respond! It's a forecast, not a 100% predicted. O look at Willy before I go out, most times it's about right, somedays it's less wind than predicted, somedays it's more. If you are unhappy with it, use another program or get over it. Simple. That's fishing a d boating for you, expect the unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fab1 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 hours ago, Basswhisperer said: Hi Kingie Chaser thanks for your reply and insight I also suspect La Niña is having an impact. I am concerned however when you monitor weather for a week and ten while forecast is wrong and not adjusted as an FYI I will be contacting BOM tomorrow with some feedback.. everyone makes the usual remarks about weather but when governments give millions off dollars a year to these people I expect more Unfortunately there's no guarantees in life.Like the others said take weather reports with a grain of salt. I would use them combined with waking up in the morning, going outside for a look then deciding if you should proceed with one final look at weather for your intended location. If you decide to proceed...re-access on your arrival and decide to go ahead or return home from there .Constantly access current wind conditions while your'e out there too. I can assure you that's pretty much what everyone does. As for ringing them up and expecting any changes or gaurantee's I wouldn't hold your breath as nothings going to change. Hope this helps. Just get out there as much as you can and enjoy the day for what it is. Stay safe!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsswordfisherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Check out our Deckee app https://deckee.com/ Deckee is the free boating app for local information, trip logging, weather, navigation aids and official alerts and notices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noelm Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 If you look at weather maps, and take note of what happens with certain high and low pressure systems, depending on where they are in relation to your area, over time, you can get pretty good at predicting/forecasting/guessing what's "likely" to happen in your location. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basswhisperer Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 hours ago, mrsswordfisherman said: Check out our Deckee app https://deckee.com/ Deckee is the free boating app for local information, trip logging, weather, navigation aids and official alerts and notices. Cheers I have just downloaded very happy with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yowie Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 hours ago, Fab1 said: Unfortunately there's no guarantees in life.Like the others said take weather reports with a grain of salt. I would use them combined with waking up in the morning, going outside for a look then deciding if you should proceed with one final look at weather for your intended location. If you decide to proceed...re-access on your arrival and decide to go ahead or return home from there .Constantly access current wind conditions while your'e out there too. I can assure you that's pretty much what everyone does. As for ringing them up and expecting any changes or gaurantee's I wouldn't hold your breath as nothings going to change. Hope this helps. Just get out there as much as you can and enjoy the day for what it is. Stay safe!! Fab, do you look at a fishing app before you head out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yowie Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 hours ago, Basswhisperer said: Hi Fellow FR I went to the Botany Bay yesterday as was favorable Willy weather wind forecast only to be greeted with severely incorrect forecast and had to endure terrible conditions on the way back in. When I checked forecasted vs actual today it was severely incorrect again. Does anyone have any theory’s why information is incorrect and is there more accurate information available ?? I was out in Bate Bay yesterday on my mate's 25 footer, and we bounced around all the bloody time. That swell was from a low pressure system to the north of N.Z. I think that system was a tropical low about a week ago when further north, not quite as strong as a cyclone, but still packing a punch. The wind forecast was about 10 knots - the Kurnell weather station recorded wind speed up to 16 knots, which is not strong but strong enough to make drifting not too easy , requiring a bit of lead to stay on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fab1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Yowie said: Fab, do you look at a fishing app before you head out? No, I lick my finger and hold it out of the bedroom window.If I don't feel a breeze..... I get up,have brekkie, hook the boat up and head off to feed the fishes. If I stick my finger out the window and feel a breeze I roll over and keep sleeping. If I'm sleeping and feel a breeze under the blanket.I give the mrs a swift kick up the clacker and kick her out of the room for farting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fab1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Yowie said: I was out in Bate Bay yesterday on my mate's 25 footer, and we bounced around all the bloody time. That swell was from a low pressure system to the north of N.Z. I think that system was a tropical low about a week ago when further north, not quite as strong as a cyclone, but still packing a punch. The wind forecast was about 10 knots - the Kurnell weather station recorded wind speed up to 16 knots, which is not strong but strong enough to make drifting not too easy , requiring a bit of lead to stay on the bottom. You missed telling us the important facts.How did you guys go?Bouncing around isn't my cup of tea either.I use to go deep sea fishing with the old man and end up on the deck without fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noelm Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Any "app" relies on the same information that the BOM has, it's really no different to watching the news (except an app might be more current) or using any of the dozen weather sites available, they are all simply "predictions". When boating, wind is your enemy, wind creates chop, chop gives you the rough ride, and "white caps" that cause you grief, swell as such makes little difference, unless it's some kind of big storm swell, a normal swell around here is not going to hurt anyone, unless you are beach launching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunc333 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 yes i find it weird .bom can tell me whats going to happen in 10 years they reckon but cant tell me whats happening tommorrow .just my opinion cheers dunc333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsswordfisherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 hours ago, noelm said: Any "app" relies on the same information that the BOM has, it's really no different to watching the news (except an app might be more current) or using any of the dozen weather sites available, they are all simply "predictions". When boating, wind is your enemy, wind creates chop, chop gives you the rough ride, and "white caps" that cause you grief, swell as such makes little difference, unless it's some kind of big storm swell, a normal swell around here is not going to hurt anyone, unless you are beach launching. True the BOM is the single source of truth. The app creators all present the data in different ways. Which of the weather apps do you like the best @noelm and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noelm Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It's a whole different ball game for me, I just watch the local evening news weather and make up my own mind, but, I live right on the ocean and just need to look outside to get "real time" chop/wind/water conditions. If I am going crabbing in the lake, unless a gale is predicted I just go, a trip, including travel is at best all over by 9-10AM, and most of the lake is simple enough to find shelter. Most of my ocean fishing is afternoon Snapper fishing, by lunch time, usually what's going to "happen" is obvious, if you get what I mean, occasionally I might do an early morning Flathead run, or a trip out to the FAD, or if I get talked into it, a trip to the shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basswhisperer Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hi fellow FRs thanks everyone for their great informative reply’s & messages you have sent me. Just following up received a call from someone within the BOM today. They were good enough to provide quite a substantial breakdown of what is occurring & have emailed me a number of scientific papers to read. I will attempt to understand them and if I can will summarize the key points for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingie chaser Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Basswhisperer said: Hi fellow FRs thanks everyone for their great informative reply’s & messages you have sent me. Just following up received a call from someone within the BOM today. They were good enough to provide quite a substantial breakdown of what is occurring & have emailed me a number of scientific papers to read. I will attempt to understand them and if I can will summarize the key points for everyone. Sweet, good to hear they got back to you instead of just ignoring you! That will be an interesting read I would say. I'd like to hear how they forecast the weather but make excuses in where they can get it wrong 🤔 😁 On 1/25/2022 at 9:58 PM, motiondave said: today was predicted 15-20 kph winds, and 25-30 kph blew in. Yep thats why they call it a weather "prediction" has so many variables to factor into that that it can change in a matter of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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